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It’s A Dollar-based Boom Shortage More Than Anything
Liquidity preferences are one of the least discussed economic concepts. There are several channels into which monetary instability can hamper the real economy. A “dollar” squeeze doesn’t just impact...
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Not A Good Start For China’s Third R
File it under “what were they thinking?” In March 2015, confronted by a severe external monetary squeeze, the PBOC made a truly radical choice. Maybe it was that for a few months anyway things looked a...
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US Banks Haven’t Behaved Like This Since 2009
If there is one thing Ben Bernanke got right, it was this. In 2009 during the worst of the worst monetary crisis in four generations, the Federal Reserve’s Chairman was asked in front of Congress if we...
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The Magic’s Gone
For the magic trick to work, it has to be credible. The audience has to be given something concrete upon which they will suspend their disbelief. Quantitative Easing was just such a trick, though only...
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Three For One In China Still Yields A Minus Situation
A couple of new developments in China that are worth commenting on. First, what everyone is calling a stealth QE. It isn’t. The central bank bill swap program is instead designed for two purposes at...
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Finally Some Real Data…For November
The payroll report wasn’t actually the first. The Treasury Department filed its Treasury International Capital (TIC) update yesterday, about two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown....
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Explaining All The Facts
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was in New York last week, making a presentation to the US Monetary Policy Forum. A well-known dove, speaking to CNBC while attending the conference, as a current...
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Jay Powell Is In The Way (Literally, for the UST Curve)
Early in May 2013, the word “taper” exploded into the mainstream. It was everywhere, scarcely an article written or news story pieced together which hadn’t included the term (even though Ben Bernanke...
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Bonds and Economists At It Again
Federal funds is up again. As of yesterday, the 29th, the effective rate (EFF) is now 5 bps above IOER. That takes it to within 5 bps below the top of the Federal Reserve’s policy range. According to...
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It’s Never What They Say, Pay Attention To How They Behave
It’s a behavioral shift, one we’ve seen before. Misunderstood because of idiocy like QE, even those who’ve undergone the change fail to appreciate the deeper meaning behind it. Not just at the...
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